ENTSO-E’s Midterm Adequacy Forecast is a pan-European analysis on security of electricity supply based on a low-carbon scenario by 2025. The Forecast highlights the importance of cross-border cooperation.
The ENTSO-E Midterm Adequacy Forecast (MAF) 2018 edition is a pan-European monitoring assessment of power system resource adequacy according to base scenarios for 2020 and 2025 and based on sophisticated mathematical calculations including a Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) metric.
The MAF looks at the complex interdependencies between supply, demand, storage, climatic conditions and interconnection capacities, underlining the importance of cross-border cooperation in fostering adequacy throughout the interconnected pan-European system. The Forecast does not predict significant adequacy issues on the continent, yet it does foresee scarcity for islands including Cyprus, Corsica, Malta and Crete.
In this 2018 edition, a ‘low-carbon’ scenario considers the impact of shutting down 23 GW of generation units by 2025 due to an acceleration of environmental policies concluding the phase-out of coal and diesel electricity generation. Results confirm that the decommissioning of polluting generation capacity should be accompanied by the development of flexibility sources, i.e., demand response, storage, interconnections and also smarter integration of renewable and distributed energy sources.
The MAF is part of the wider package of ENTSO-E’s ten year network development plan (TYNDP), which looks at a longer-term horizon (2030-2040). The results of the MAF are now out for public consultation until 09 November.