ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G published the final joint Scenario Report for the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2018, following the incorporation of the feedback received from the stakeholders during the Consultation that ran from 02 October until 10 November 2017.
The final Scenario Report provides a detailed overview of possible European energy futures up to 2040. The ENTSOs’ vision is captured through three storylines, developed based on forward-looking policies and aimed at reducing emissions by 80% to 95%, as per EU 2050 targets.
The three scenarios presented in the Report highlight that consumers would play a fundamental role towards achieving the decarbonisation of the energy system through “an evolution of behaviour, a fit-for-purpose regulatory framework and reliance on RES through new usages”.
The long-term vision is captured through the following scenarios: (i) Sustainable Transition – where targets are reached through national regulation, emission trading schemes and subsidies, maximising the use of existing infrastructure; (ii) Distributed Generation – where “prosumers” are at the centre and where the development of small-scale generation, batteries, and fuel switching are key to achieve an engaged and empowered society; and (iii) Global Climate Action – where there is full speed global decarbonisation and large-scale RES development in both the electricity and gas sectors.
These scenarios are used by the ENTSOs and other organisations to analyse the future of the European energy system, starting with the yearly Midterm Adequacy Forecast (MAF) and the TYNDP 2018.